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The Agurban

#735 – We are with the 11%

May 7, 2019


We are with the 11%

We googled “when is the next recession coming.” We’re curious. We received some 39,100,100 results in 0.68 seconds! There’s a lot of information out there.

In February, according to a Washington Post article, a survey of business economists by the National Association for Business Economics reported that 75% of those questioned believed a recession will occur by 2021. Only 11 percent anticipated that the U.S. would avoid a recession during that two-year window.

The Washington Post report goes on to say, “The U.S. is deep into an economic expansion, which began in summer 2009, after the financial crisis. If the expansion lasts until June, it would be the nation’s longest. Though the economy has been robust — marked by strong consumer spending, climbing markets and the lowest unemployment rates in decades — signs of a slowdown have surfaced. Recent months have seen dizzying volatility in the markets and a sudden drop-off in consumer confidence. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have taken a toll on economic growth in the U.S. and abroad.”

So…we don’t have a crystal ball. The indicators we monitor are all relatively positive for the time being (labor productivity, unemployment, chemical activity barometer, ISM Manufacturing Index, etc.) We are going to keep on doing what we have always done. And, as always, we will keep our eyes wide open.