#686 – Helping U.S. Manufacturers: What works?May 15, 2018
|Here’s a great report on what successful manufacturing communities are doing to maintain their manufacturing base.
Helping U.S. manufacturers: What works?
One of the chasms in today’s political economy relates to manufacturing. Broadly speaking, many elites believe that the one-two punch of globalization (trade) and technology (robotics) has effectively knocked out the sector. But many people disagree. Or, more precisely, they believe that with the right policies, we could support more factory jobs in more places than we do now.
Then there’s the economist Tim Bartik, who wrote an important new paper published by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Full Employment Project called “Helping Manufacturing-Intensive Communities: What Works?”
Bartik, who works at Michigan’s Upjohn Institute, begins by noting that, of course, manufacturing employment has fallen, especially since 2000, a period often referenced as the “China Shock,” due to the sharp increase in the flow of Chinese imports. But here’s Bartik’s value added (he’s a renowned regional economist, a creature that exploits different outcomes across place and time): Of the over 100 local labor markets with populations over 200,000 and above-average shares of manufacturing jobs, 22 managed to do well, adding private sector jobs and beating the national employment growth rate, 2007-15.
It turns out that those areas applied some combination of three strategies. Call them the “three habits of highly successful manufacturing-intensive communities”:
Take note of what’s not on the list. To quote the author, “I find no evidence that job growth in these areas is significantly spurred by cutting business taxes or increasing business tax incentives.” It’s not that tax cuts or incentives are always a waste of money. But Bartik’s rigorous analysis finds a much smaller bang for tax cuts/incentives bucks than for these other interventions (incentives, for the record, are better than cuts because they can be more narrowly targeted).
Bartik cites Grand Rapids, Mich., as a real-life example of what can happen when state and local officials take these findings seriously. The figure below shows how the city handily beat the national trend in factory jobs, 2010-15.
Here’s what Grand Rapids did:
The bottom line is this: Before we accept the diagnosis that U.S. manufacturing is toast, there’s way more to do. First, we need to apply Bartik’s local lessons, which at the state level implies raising the revenue needed to fund these investments. Thus, no tax cuts.
Jared Bernstein, a former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden, is a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and author of ‘The Reconnection Agenda: Reuniting Growth and Prosperity’. Somin Park is a fiscal intern at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.