#665 – Latest MAPI Industrial Outlook Report

Posted on | The Agurban

Latest MAPI Industrial Outlook Report

We have shared information with our readers about MAPI (Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation) in the past. We look to their forecasts regularly to see what the future holds for specific manufacturing sectors. The most recent forecast includes the extension of the forecast to 2021. Below are a few keys points from the latest report.

  • In spite of two devastating hurricanes, U.S. economic growth has averaged 3.1% in the second and third quarters of 2017, up from a 2% average over the prior four quarters. Unless the recent growth improvement in the U.S. is fleeting, it adds a further significant upside prospect for world economic performance.
  • Between 2017 and 2021, we expect annual U.S. GDP growth to be an average of 2.1%.
  • The MAPI Foundation has been tracking the progress of U.S. manufacturing in regaining the output that was lost during the deep and destabilizing 2007-2009 downturn. As of September 2017, output remains 6.3% below the December 2007 level. Under our current projections for manufacturing output growth, the factory sector will fall short of regaining its lost output even by the end of 2021.
  • The computer and electronic productssubsector and the machinery subsector are benefitting from a global economic recovery and a modest manufacturing rebound. The annual growth of machinery subsector output is expected to average 2.5% through 2021, while the average growth of computers and electronic products output is projected to be just a bit stronger at 2.6%.
  • After an expected 3.3% output contraction in 2017, the aerospace products and parts subsector is projected to enjoy a strong 3.8% average growth rate through 2021.
  • While the recent hurricanes lowered projected output growth in the chemicals subsector for 2017, the average growth forecast through 2021 is a solid 2.6%. The ongoing U.S. housing recovery, moderate but steady consumer spending, and demographic tailwinds for the pharmaceuticals industry are all making chemicals a solid performer.

While there are some political and geopolitical uncertainties, there is definitely cause for optimism. We certainly are! Stay tuned…