#639 – Stronger World Propelling U.S. Manufacturing
Posted on | The Agurban
One of the key reports we follow is the MAPI (Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation) quarterly forecast of U.S. economic and manufacturing growth. Below are some key points from their most recent report.
Stronger World Propelling U.S. Manufacturing
The upswing in the global economy that began in the winter of 2016 continues apace.
Encouraging signs:
- The U.S. labor market is improving,
- Canadian GDP growth is the most stable since 2014,
- Mexico sees strong export growth above 10%,
- The prolonged China slowdown reached a likely trough, and
- For the first time since 2006, Japan had five consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth.
Current uncertainties:
- Escalating U.S. political and policy uncertainties,
- Risks in China’s financial system, and
- Brexit’s early impacts on the Eurozone.
All told, the MAPI Foundation’s forecast remains relatively unchanged from the February 2017 report. Between 2017-2020, we expect annual U.S. GDP growth to be an average 2.2% and U.S. manufacturing growth to average 1.6% across the three-year period.
Summary
In spite of impediments from the still elevated dollar and long-term weakness in capital spending, the improvement in global economic growth is having a positive impact on the U.S. manufacturing outlook. Each of our forecasts suggests an improving picture, but also a possibly of a new normal for U.S. manufacturing growth.